Democrat John Kerry did not lose the presidential election last week to Republican incumbent George W. Bush because blacks did not come out strong. No, Kerry and the Democrats lost because they were outmaneuvered on a social issue in Ohio – the one state that decided the election – said David Bositis, the go-to guy for tracking black voting trends.
“Kerry did very well with blacks,” said the senior research associate with the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. “Kerry got 88 percent. [Bill] Clinton got only 82 percent of the black vote in 1992 and 84 percent in 1996.
“To say that Kerry did not connect with African-Americans is not true.”
Sen. Kerry’s share of the black vote said Bositis, was a historic high for a Democratic candidate since the early 1970s.
So why did Kerry lose 51- 48 percent? Bositis said that happened because a lot of new, conservative voters turned out for Bush. And Kerry’s campaign was based on winning Ohio.
“Also, Bush support increased among black conservative Christians,” the analyst explained. “I didn’t see it coming.”
I reminded Bositis that two years ago, he presented data that said blacks he polled tracked like white Republicans on social issues like religious faith, abortion and gay marriage.
Bositis told me and columnist colleagues of the William Monroe Trotter Group here that lately, “Republicans have read my data more than the Democrats.
“My survey said blacks were mostly against gay marriage.” Bositis explained that 46 percent of blacks polled opposed either gay marriage or civil unions, unlike 37 percent of whites.
“Kerry’s people,” said Bositis “should have realized that gay marriage was a bigger deal than it appeared.
“The Republicans and conservative Christians played this cleverly. They got ballot initiatives in key states, including Ohio and Georgia. The Georgia Legislative Black Caucus tried to block the initiative, but two members broke rank.
In Ohio, 66 percent of blacks voted for Issue No. 1 [Ohio traditional marriage amendment] and a similar number did the same in Georgia.
“In the state election that mattered [Ohio] Bush’s black support increased from 9 to 16 percent. That represented a shift of 55,000 voters. There is an argument to be made that African-Americans were a key part of Bush’s Ohio support.”
And black support for Bush, said Bositis, increased in other states; in Pennsylvania, from 7 percent in 2000 to 16 percent this year; 15 percent from 7 in South Carolina; 16 percent from 5 in Texas and 10 percent from 8 in Michigan.
However, keep in mind that Bush’s black support – 8 percent four years ago – was at a historic low level for a Republican presidential candidate. Bush was in the basement so his numbers could not worsen. Last week Bush got 11 percent of the black vote, not the 18-percent favorable response that the JCPES reported before the election, nor the 12-percent black support Bositis anticipated on Nov. 2.
The other sharp fact that should not be blurred is the overall black vote – especially the young black vote – increased substantially, and that effort was not in vain, despite Democrat losses.
Bositis said in Arkansas, black participation rose to 15 percent in 2004 from 11 percent in 2000; to 24 percent from 22 in Maryland, to 13 percent from 11 in Michigan and in New York; to 10 from 9 in Ohio. Dramatic gains occurred in Pennsylvania, 13 percent, up from 7, and North Carolina, 26 percent, up from 19 in 2000.
Black folks did not vote in vain. For many of them, the presidency was lost, but they had hands in electing many mayors, county commissioners and sheriffs in local elections.
Nearly 3 million additional black voters came out to vote this year compared to last year, said Bositis, who added that if a Sunday New York Times account turns out to be accurate, 12 percent, not 11 which is being widely reported, was total black voter turnout. That would push the numbers as high as 4.4 million additional black voters.
Such surges in new voters, said Bositis, made little old lady poll workers wonder out loud “What are they doing here?” when young black men ages 18-29 showed up at polls in Philadelphia, Detroit, Houston and Miami to vote.
Thomas Patterson of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University was with Bositis to present polling data. Patterson told us that this time younger blacks identified significantly more as Democrats than the last election when many of them identified as independents.
That may have something to do with another factoid he offered: 75 percent of blacks polled do not like George Bush personally. “Whites don’t reach that level of dislike for Louis Farrakhan,” said Patterson.
Yet Bush is the leader we will have for four more years.
My humble advice is to quickly get over the “blues” and get ready for the next battle with the “reds.”
By coming out in force, more blacks are in the game. We cannot afford to warm the bench.
