For presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Tuesday’s closely-watched primaries in North Carolina and Indiana are crucial contests that could determine who becomes the Democratic nominee to take on Republican John McCain in November.
Obama squeaked out a victory Saturday in the Guam primary by seven votes -- 2,264 votes to 2,257. The tiny but significant U.S. island territory handed Obama a victory, which increased his lead over Clinton with pledged delegates, now standing at 1,493 to 1,334, in a campaign where every delegate will count.
Obama has also tied Clinton at 97 for the number of supporters on Capitol Hill among Democratic legislators, and he now trails Clinton by only 19 super delegates.
David Bositis, senior analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, told BlackAmericaWeb.com that for all of Clinton’s efforts, she’s essentially running in place.
"She's desperate," Bositis said of Clinton. "Pennsylvania was such a big win for her, but she's actually three delegates ahead of where she was three months ago in the margin between her and Obama. The superdelegates are moving toward Obama and (with) the small numbers she pulled, she hasn't gained any ground."
But Traci Blunt, a spokeswoman for Clinton, said the race in Indiana "remains very close and very competitive."
"Our Indiana campaign ramped up efforts in mid-March, and we knew that Sen. Obama already had an advantage. Nearly 20 percent of the households in the state are in the Chicago television market," Blunt told BlackAmericaWeb.com.
"Sen. Clinton is committed to Indiana and over the last several weeks has traveled to every part of the state listening to the concerns of the voters and sharing her ideas for solutions to the important issues and challenges they face, like the economy," Blunt said.
In Indiana, polls show the race is a dead heat as both candidates are barnstorming across the state, although some black voters in Indiana are complaining that they haven’t seen enough of Obama in their black neighborhoods.
"With 42 percent of the state's black voting population in Marion County, it does raise some eyebrows," said Amos Brown, an African-American radio talk show host in Indianapolis.
"I just think it would have been nice to have had an event in Indianapolis, not necessarily in a black neighborhood, per se, but where more people could have come to see him," Brown said. "This has not happened in other states with significant African-American populations."
Cornell Burris, president of the Indianapolis branch of the NAACP, said, "I just wish Obama had spent more time in the city of Indianapolis. This is a very important election, and this is the state capital."
The races in Indiana and North Carolina are tightening. Obama’s once double-digit lead over Clinton in North Carolina has been cut to nine points as the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy continued to dog him on the campaign trail.
Speaking on NBC’s "Meet The Press" program Sunday, Obama was questioned for the first 15 minutes of the broadcast about Rev. Wright’s negative impact on his campaign.
"It’s distracted us," Obama said of Wright. "We ended up spending a lot of time talking about Rev. Wright instead of talking about gas prices, good prices and the situation in Iraq. It wasn’t welcomed."
"When I joined Trinity United Church of Christ, I was committing not to Pastor Wright; I was committing to a church, and I was committing to Christ," Obama said.
Obama said Wright’s comments about "the chickens coming home to roost" after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and his belief that the U.S. government created the HIV virus to kill black people "didn’t unite the country, it divided the country."
Obama said, again, that he no longer wants Wright "associated" with his campaign and would not consult Wright if elected president. He also said that the media "overstated" his relationship as Obama’s spiritual adviser.
But, he added, "Hopefully we can put this behind us."
Meanwhile, Herbert White, editor of The Charlotte Post, said Obama’s slip in the North Carolina polls is a direct result of the Wright mess.
"People who are supporting Mr. Obama wish Rev. Wright would go away," White told BlackAmericaWeb.com days before Tuesday’s primary. "The more attention Wright gets, the worse it gets for Mr. Obama."
White said there are many voters in North Carolina who may not support Obama because of "guilt by association" and added that Obama supporters are "cautiously optimistic" about Tuesday’s primary.
"I’m not sure what more Mr. Obama can do," White said. "He’s repudiated Wright, but that might not be enough for some people on the fence. This has the potential to wreck his whole campaign."
White added that newly registered voters supporting Clinton will likely show up in large numbers because "they smell blood in the water."
In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll in April, 53 percent of whites who have not completed college viewed Obama unfavorably, up a dozen percentage points from November. During that period, the numbers viewing Clinton and Republican candidate John McCain negatively have stayed about even.
"It's the stuff about his preacher ... and the thing he said about Pennsylvania towns, how they turn to religion," Keith Wolfe, 41, a supermarket food stocker from Parkville, Md., said. "I don't think he'd be a really good leader."
In Indiana, there are some signs of encouragement for Obama. About 20 percent of the absentee ballots are breaking for Obama in three Indiana counties where Obama is favored to win.
Robert Dion, a professor of American politics at the University of Evansville, said Obama has been successful in mobilizing voters.
"In a close race, modest advantages in organization can yield big results, and if Obama out-organizes the Clinton campaign on these absentee ballots, it would be a great boost to him," Dion said.
Last week, Joe Andrew, a leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton, switched his allegiance from Hillary Clinton to Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind Obama.
Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001 and who is from Indiana, is urging Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary. A superdelegate, Andrew said Obama "rises above the politics of the day." He added that he’s been "inspired" by Obama and said Obama "would make a great president."
With a large turnout expected in North Carolina, political analysts estimate that African-Americans -- who make up 21 percent of the state’s population -- could represent as much as 40 percent of the Democratic electorate on primary day May 6. Black voter registration has also increased in North Carolina, up 19 percent from 2004 to 1.2 million.
Roland Martin, a radio talk show host and a political analyst for CNN, wrote about Obama’s challenges moving forward on CNN.com.
"Now that he has taken the necessary steps to separate himself from Wright," Martin wrote, "Obama must go on his most vigorous offensive to date and make it clear that he is running for president, and not Wright."
Did Obama misjudge Wright?
On Sunday’s news program, Obama said it’s fair for Americans to look at the Wright episode carefully, but to also put it in the context of Obama’s community work over 20 years.
He said Americans have the right "to lift the hood and kick the tires" because when running for president, his life is "an open book."
And why didn’t Obama distance himself from Wright sooner?
Upon reflection, Obama said: "When you’re in national politics, it’s always good to pull the band-aid off quick. But life’s messy sometimes. It’s not always neat and things don’t proceed in text book political 101 fashion."
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Associated Press contributed to this story.