Twice as many black people are willing to vote for George W. Bush in next month’s election than they were in 2000, according to a poll released by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies on Tuesday.
In the Joint Center’s 2004 National Opinion Poll, 18 percent of black people said they would be willing to vote for Bush, which doubles the 9 percent that said they would do so in the Joint Center poll heading into the 2000 election.
The biggest reason for such a jump, experts say, is because the black community widely opposes same-sex marriages and civil unions, faith-based issues that have been pushed to the forefront in the Bush Administration.
“You have to look at the evangelical Christian movement that is prevalent in the black community and take notice of how that relates to the evangelical Christian movement in the White House,” Morehouse College political scientist Hasan Crockett told BlackAmericaWeb.com.
“Seeing the numbers double is startling to me, and I’d like to see some similar polls draw the same conclusion. But there is no denying that religious connection with Bush definitely has some influence on the black vote. Those conservative social issues are now ringing true in the black community heading into this election. Black folks can identify with Bush when he says he’s against same-sex marriage and those kinds of things.”
The drastic jump in percentages is particularly surprising, since Bush’s favorable rating actually is lower than it was four years ago, according to this year’s Joint Center poll. Sixty-seven percent of black people view Bush unfavorably, and nearly 75 percent disagree with his handling of Iraq, according to the poll.
In addition, Bush’s Democratic rival for president, Sen. John Kerry, still leads Bush among black voters (69 percent to 18 percent).
However, C.J. Jordan, president of the National Black Republican Leadership Council, said the doubling in the percentage of black people willing to vote for Bush this year speaks to how his “faith-based initiative” presented in 2001 has connected with the black community.
“Our ancestors came over here, and they were taught how to read from the Bible, not regular books,” she said. “Back then, if we had nothing else, we had our faith in God. And God’s teachings tell us that homosexuality is not normal. (Black people) are conditioned to not go against God’s teachings. But you’ll find that a lot of our black leaders are alienating us by accepting this (homosexual) behavior and tying the gay marriage issue to the Civil Rights Movement.
“People are having a problem when they see a candidate coming into our black churches and not addressing these kinds of issues,” Jordan continued. “Black people want someone who’ll be strong and speak out against these things. Black people don’t mind a president who loves God. President Bush has never claimed to be perfect; he’s always said he made some ‘youthful indiscretions’ – until he found God. And our folks aren’t mad about that. They might not agree with some other things regarding the president and the (Republican) Party. But they agree with him on these social issues, and that’s very important.”
The Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. in a statement said this about the new poll numbers: “It should be noted, however, that a similar poll conducted by the Joint Center Poll in 2000 indicated 74 percent of African-Americans support presidential candidate Al Gore. We know that by Election Day – by decision time – Gore won 90 percent of the black vote. That’s because most polls only include likely voters in their sample. Not included are the newly registered, “unlikely voters” or those that only use cell phones. The poll was also taken prior to the recent debates that have resulted in changing voter preferences.
“Bush says Democrats take blacks for granted, as if we don’t make judgments about our options,” said the senior adviser to the Kerry campaign. “Republicans seek to take Blacks for fools. They offer symbols without substance.”
The Joint Center poll was conducted between Sept. 15 and Oct. 10 of 2004, among 1,642 adults. The poll has a statistical margin of error of 3.5 percent.
In a statement, Eddie N. Williams, president of the Joint Center, said the poll shows a certain amount of ambivalence among black voters.
“They are holding conservative positions on some wedge issues like same-sex marriage and civil unions and indicating clear disapproval of the way the country is being run,” Williams said in the statement. “At the same time, they have not yet embraced Sen. Kerry to the extent that they did former President Clinton and former Vice President (Al) Gore.”
